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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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